Tensiunile în #EastAsia rămân ridicate, avertizează experții

Despite the recent seeming breakthroughs for settling the North Korea nuclear crisis and the South China Sea dispute, high tensions in the East Asian region remain, according to the experts at a conference held by the European Institute for Asian Studies on Wednesday (24 January).

Security hotspots in East Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, have long been under high tension and are unlikely to reach stability in the coming years. Experts pointed out that it all depends on whether China and the United States, the two main players in the region with different priorities and interests, can find a way to reconcile.

"The conflicts will just move to one of the other hotspots because the underlying problem is that the US and China have not found a way to manage their differences," said Liselotte Odgaard, a professor at the Royal Danish Defence College. She has published two books about China's security strategy.

The most intense conflict in the past few months lied undoubtedly in the Korean Peninsula. The North Korea nuclear crisis went especially critical as North Korea demonstrated its ability to launch ballistic missiles by conducting a series of missile tests. Aggression exchanged between Kim Jung Un, the supreme leader of North Korea, and Donald Trump also intensified the situation.

New sanctions on North Korea, including an oil embargo, were introduced in December 2017 by the UN Security Council, but frequent violations, mostly related to China and Russia, have weakened the effects. In mid-January, two consecutive meetings of the two Korea's to agree on cooperation during the Olympic winter games starting on February 9 in PyeongChang, South Korea were deemed as a breakthrough. However, no signs have indicated that North Korea will collapse facing Trump's "maximum pressure" policy, while China's commitment to tough sanctions on North Korea remains questionable.

"China cannot do more," said Xinning Song, a professor of International Relations at the Renmin University, during the roundtable discussion. In line with the Chinese government's rhetoric, he emphasized that China is the only country in the world that has imposed sanctions on its allies, referring to the Sino-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed in 1961.

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On Wednesday, the United States announced new sanctions on two China-based trading firms accused of helping weapons production in North Korea. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that she did not have all the fact about the issue but "China resolutely opposes any country using its own laws to carry out long-arm jurisdiction on Chinese companies or individual."

Different interpretations of current situation in East Asia between China and the US were also manifested in the dispute over sovereignty of the South China Sea and Taiwan, currently self-ruled but claimed by Beijing as a wayward province of China.

China claims the largest portion of the South China Sea as its "historical territory" and continues to "ensure free navigation" by island-building and frequent naval patrol. The US has also regularly sent navy ships to the region and both sides condemned each other's military action. Last November, China agreed to start negotiation for a new code of conduct with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Nevertheless, a possible final agreement is expected to take years to reach and its effectiveness is doubtful.

While the world is focusing on the North Korea nuclear crisis, the tension between China and Taiwan has been escalating since the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party won the Taiwanese presidential election in 2016. Following a series of military harassment, on January 4, China unilaterally activated the M503 route, a civil air route near the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and caused new controversy.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen accused China of threatening regional security. "Harming the bilateral relation between China and Taiwan is going to harm the security in East Asia as well," said Harry Tseng, Representative of Taipei Representative Office in the European Union and Belgium, during a conference on Thursday in Brussels.

China responded that the new route was approved by the International Civil Aviation Organization and needed on permission from Taiwan. Top Chinese officials regularly warned that People's Liberation Army would unify Taiwan with military force if the island attempted to secede, or if the United States sent navy ships to Taiwan. Despite a lack of formal ties, the US is Taiwan's main source of arms.

Many Western scholars hold a pessimistic view on peace and stability in East Asia because of the diplomatic inexperience of the Trump administration and the growing hegemony of China in the region. Professor Song, on the other hand, expressed an opposite opinion. "There is no major problem at the moment," he concluded after defending China's stance on North Korea and the South China Sea.

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