#USEUCompetition - Adevărat motor principal al războiului comercial internațional

The United States is launching its assaults on China and Europe simultaneously over trade issues, and the impact is global. The trade volume of China, the European Union and the United States have accounted for 80% of international trade. If there is a trade war between the three, it would definitely be a global trade war, scrie Chen Gong.

International trade is facing complicated and daunting international trade circumstance; it is very important to understand the situation well. At the Central Foreign Affairs Working Conference, President Xi Jinping pointed out that to grasp the international situation, it is necessary to establish the correct perspectives on history, the overall situation and the role. He emphasized that there is the need to grasp the historical trend as well as the essence and the whole situation, and avoid losing direction in the international turmoil. He also mentioned that China needs to understand its position and role in the changing global situation. These "three perspectives" is not only applicable to foreign affairs, but also to the analysis of the international trade situation.

From the perspective of China, the mainstream view that has become a consensus in China is that the trade war between China and the United States is China's top priority. China is the trade opponent that the United States wants to assault the most, and it is also the main strategic opponent that the United States wants to suppress in terms of technology and comprehensive national strength. Based on the "intensity" and the scale of the recent China-U.S. trade frictions, the above views are reasonable. The scale of the first trade war between China and the United States was 2 x US$50 billion, the total being US$100 billion. U.S. President Donald Trump also threatened the escalation of the trade war and imposed tariffs on US$400 billion of Chinese exports to the United States.

In contrast, the current U.S.-E.U. sanctions are only a few billion dollars, merely a fraction of the size of the China-U.S. trade war. In addition, the United States has clearly identified China as the foremost strategic competitor, while major trade entities such as Japan and the E.U. are strategic allies of the United States. Therefore, for the China-U.S. trade war, many people in China are worried that Europe and Japan and the United States will stand as one single bloc and take the opportunity to take advantage on China.

However, Anbound's view on the pattern of global trade war differs from others. Chen Gong, Anbound's chief researcher pointed out that it should be clear that the global competition embodied in the trade war is mainly between Europe and the United States, not between China and the United States. Since the founding of the United States, the United States has been competing with European countries. The two World Wars were closely related with the competition between Europe and the United States as well. There are indeed ideological issues between China and the United States, but in peacetime under globalization, ideology is merely for "discourses" and is related to establishing "friend circles". However, even if "friendship" is established, it does not mean that competition would cease, nor do military and political alliances mean economic competition would be absent. So long as Trump insists on the ""America First" strategy, he would see the alliance in the past that required the U.S. to spend huge amount of money for its allies as a loss-making business. Trump has asked the NATO allies to take on more military expenses, and suspended the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise for being "provocative" and "expensive"; all these show that the alliance relationship is ineffective against economic problems.

If we objectively assess the economic and technological competitiveness, China, Europe and Japan have completely different competition threats to the United States. Although the United States regards China as its foremost strategic opponent in national security, China is still in the learning stage in the technology field; the region and countries that can really constitute major competitions and conflicts with the United States is not China but Europe and Japan. Chen Gong pointed out that Trump has already understood this point; he will eventually deal with those, like Europe and Japan that take the advantages of the United States.

This view is supported by facts and figures.
From the perspective of trade scale, the United States is the E.U.'s largest trading partner. According to the statistics of Eurostat, the two largest trade partners of the E.U. in 2017 were the U.S. and China. The trade volume between the U.S. and Europe was 631 billion euros, accounting for 16.9% of the EU's total trade. Among them, in 2017, the U.S. exported 255 billion euros to the EU, and the E.U. exported 376 billion euros to the U.S. The E.U.-China trade was 573 billion euros, accounting for 15.3%. In terms of U.S.-Japan trade, according to statistics from the Japan Customs, the United States and China are Japan's top two export trading partners. In 2017, Japan's exports to the U.S. and China were US$134.79 billion and US$132.86 billion respectively. China and the U.S. were also the top two importing countries of Japan, with imports of $164.42 billion and $72.03 billion respectively. Among them, the U.S. is Japan's largest source of trade surplus, with a surplus of $62.76 billion in 2017. If we consider the technological capabilities and trade structure, the E.U. and Japan are indeed strong competitors of the United States.

publicitate

From the perspective of bilateral relations, the economic issues of the United States and Europe have begun to be politicized. A typical example is the Nord Stream-2 project that builds two natural gas pipelines crossing the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast to Germany. The total gas transmission volume is 55 billion cubic meters per year. Currently, the project has obtained construction permits in Germany, Finland and Sweden, while Denmark will issue licenses to relevant companies. However, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Sandra Oudkirk said recently that the United States hopes that the E.U. will stop the construction of the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline. Oudkirk said: "I think people ask for US sanctions because they think Nord Stream 2 is a done deal. It's not. There are still levers available to the EU." The reason for the U.S.'s opposition is simple; U.S. is ambitiously promoting its own plan to export LNG to Europe. To be sure, under the Trump administration, the United States will not hesitate to choose political means to solve economic problems.

From the E.U. perspective, the E.U. is ready to start a trade war with the United States, albeit unwillingly. European countries are paying attention to a greater risk: the United States is investigating whether car imports also pose a threat to national security. According to the E.U.'s estimation, the investigation may make about US$58 billion of E.U.-made cars and auto parts the target for tariff increases. Trump warned on Twitter on June 22 that unless the E.U. lifts barriers to U.S. products, cars made in the E.U. will soon be hit by a 20% tariff. This will force the E.U. to consider more retaliatory measures. Although the E.U. has no wish to make the trade war a reality, it also worried that it will be dragged into a "cowardly game" with the United States. This game is increasingly contrary to the E.U.'s will, but the E.U. is unable to stop it. Once this trade war has started, the E.U. will not be able to avoid the escalation of the trade war to the next levels.

Analiza finală

Although China seems to be the main target of the U.S. trade war, from the perspective of the global situation, the competition between Europe and the United States is the real prime mover of the world. This situation has also made the world's "1+3" condition realistic, and the global trade war has just begun. In this regard, China should have a clear judgment of the reality.

Fondator al rezervorului de gândire anterioară în 1993, Chen Gong este acum cercetător șef ANBOUND. Chen Gong este unul dintre experții renumiți ai Chinei în analiza informației. Cele mai multe dintre activitățile de cercetare academică remarcabile ale lui Chen Gong se află în analiza informațiilor economice, în special în domeniul politicii publice.

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