Afganistan: o evaluare și o cale de urmat

Regardless of one’s ideological disposition, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is a reality. For some the swiftness of the collapse of the Ghani Government has been stunning. For others a slow-burn predictable eventuality. A military solution was never tenable for long term security of the region and true national development of Afghanistan. Today’s reality is an amalgam of repeated mistakes by many actors, writes Ambassador Farukh Amil, pictured below.

Interventionist wars prosecuted with fire-starter foreign policies have repeatedly ended in misery for all concerned. There is no happy ending in the self-deluding mantras of ‘he must go’ or ‘there will be consequences’.  Many a time those consequences are both cruel and unintended. An honest appraisal is necessary not only for the untold number of Afghan victims but also for those sent on a mission “to do the job”. The world owes them this much. 

The crisis now unfolding in Afghanistan is the humanitarian one with thousands wanting to leave. Globally the appetite for receiving refugees has shrunk dramatically. Europe in particular seems to be in the midst of refugee-fatigue, especially after the bitter Syrian experience which contributed to the rise of anti-EU nationalistic and xenophobic forces. It is highly unlikely that any Western country would be prepared to repeat the generosity for the Afghans shown for the Syrians by Chancellor Merkel as the moral leader of the Western Alliance.  

The total collapse in Kabul must be looked at in development terms. No doubt much progress had been made, in education, women empowerment, the media and urban development. A closer look would reveal many uncomfortable truths. The words of the veteran UN diplomat Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi ring true to this day. As the UN Special Representative in Afghanistan (2001-2004), arguably the toughest period in revengeful days following 9/11, Brahimi likened the foreign intervention as a kind of spacecraft that had landed in the dusty wilderness. Inside were all modern amenities: electricity, hot food, showers, toilets. Outside in comparison, at the perimeter, Afghans peered in from their darkened world. Clearly, if development was not inclusive, it was doomed from the start.

Fast forward to another leading voice at the UN, the American economist Jeffrey Sachs who said that of the $2 trillion plus exhausted on Afghanistan, only $21 billion was spent “in economic support”, arguing that this was less than 2% of the entire US spending on Afghanistan. Whilst a key goal was to win hearts and minds, such figures cannot lend themselves to any form of optimistic outcome.

Everyone wants peace and an end to the suffering of Afghans. Most of all the Afghans themselves. Countries bordering Afghanistan want regional stability for economic progress. It is and never has been in Pakistan’s interests to pursue strategies that promote instability in Afghanistan. Rather, still carrying the largest refugee population for the longest period of time since the end of the Second World War, Pakistan continues to shoulder responsibilities and that too without recourse to xenophobic domestic politics. And once again with the evacuation from Kabul, Pakistan has stepped up with a helping hand with hundreds of flights arriving in Pakistan ferrying nearly 10,000 evacuees so far. 

There are plenty of balanced voices in the West. These need to be heard and not be drowned out by angry, missile-toting interventionists who refuse to learn the lessons of history. Mature voices such as the influential US Senator Lindsey Graham are already pressing home sensible points. Whilst it is understandable and easy to judge the emerging ‘new’ Taliban in Afghanistan from its past actions, if anything, perhaps it is now the time to give peace a chance. However, this new dispensation in Kabul must be judged by its actions. Right now it can only make promises that the international community should ideally help them keep. It is the preferred outcome for Pakistan that an inclusive Government emerges in Kabul through an Afghan-owned consensus and one that respects human rights. 

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As the Taliban requests the international community to reopen its Embassies it would be prudent to do so once the security situation stabilizes, if only to temper any feared excesses through engagement. Otherwise what is certain is the impending humanitarian crisis. For those who are celebrating, for whatever reason, there are words of caution. One should bear in mind the views of the former UN SRSG for Afghanistan Kai Eide, who said that “18 million people need humanitarian assistance and you cannot let them down.” If the international community turns its back on Afghanistan it will only embolden those who want to inflict chaos. A grass roots development oriented re-engagement that is gradual and conditional is the only sensible path forward at this time. 

What is the alternative? To abandon the Afghan people at this juncture is unnecessarily cruel. What would be the goal of such a policy? Collective punishment of 40 million people? And the direct consequences? The generation of refugee outflows ? Sanctions have shown time and again that the ruling elites remain unaffected and only the poor suffer. And in Afghanistan’s case, could engender some awful outcomes internationally.

The author is a former member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan. He has served as Ambassador to Japan and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva.

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